Does weather impact conflicts?

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Rising temperatures increase the likelihood of conflict, including violence and warfare. A 5°F increase leads to a 4% increase in homicide and 14% increase in warfare. The cause is unknown, but heat may make people more hostile or increase migration and inter-group violence. Humidity affects mood, and global temperatures are predicted to rise by 4°F by 2050. Bad weather can increase productivity.

Warmth could correspond to an increased likelihood of conflict, including personal violence, warfare, and even civilizational collapses. Research has found that when temperatures rise 5° Fahrenheit (about 3° Celsius) over the course of a month, interpersonal violence, such as homicide, increases by 4%, and intergroup violence, such as warfare, increases by 14%. %. It’s not known why this link between climate and conflict occurs, but researchers believe that heat makes people more hostile. Another possible reason is an increase in migration during warm temperatures, which can lead to more inter-group violence.

More information about the weather:

Humidity has been found to be the weather component that most affects mood, and high humidity typically contributes to fatigue and difficulty concentrating.
Scientists predict that overall global temperature will rise by almost 4° Fahrenheit (2° Celsius) by 2050, which could also lead to an increase in conflict.
Bad weather could make people more productive. One study found that men worked 30 minutes longer on rainy days than on clear days.




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