The annual tradition of using Punxsutawney Phil to predict the weather on Groundhog Day has only been accurate 39% of the time since 1887, according to the Stormfax Weather Almanac. Weather Underground meteorologist Tim Roche says this is worse than a climate forecast, but experienced meteorologists are often wrong too. Groundhog Day dates back to the 1700s and is a German tradition called Candlemas Day.
Year after year, the people who care for the groundhogs at Gobbler’s Knob in Pennsylvania bring out one of their rodents, nickname it “Punxsutawney Phil” and then determine whether America will have another six weeks of winter, or whether we will all enjoy a first spring. The basis for this colorful media event is whether the groundhog will see its shadow on February 2nd. But there hasn’t been much precision involved in this strange custom. “Punxsutawney Phil” has been making his own weather predictions since 1887 and of the 108 decisions kept on record, he was right only 39 percent of the time, according to the Stormfax Weather Almanac.
A shadow of a doubt:
“If Punxsutawney Phil is right 39 percent of the time, that’s far, far worse than a climate forecast,” says Weather Underground meteorologist Tim Roche. “Even if you flip a coin, you’ll still be close half the time.”
Maybe we’re being too hard on Phil. Long-range forecasts by experienced meteorologists are often wrong, reports the Washington Post. And, for some parts of the country, Phil’s predictions have been a little more accurate.
Groundhog Day dates back to the 1700s and is a German tradition called Candlemas Day, the midpoint between the winter solstice and vernal equinox. The story of marmots and their shadows first appeared in a Pennsylvania journal in 1841.
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