Earthquake prediction remains a mystery, with no reliable method to determine when one will occur. Most large earthquakes occur on fault lines, making it more likely along certain faults such as the San Andreas Fault. Small earthquakes can suggest increased pressure and fault line activity, but not all small earthquakes are precursors to large earthquakes. Foreshocks occur before a large earthquake, while aftershocks occur after. The theory that small earthquakes are precursors to large earthquakes is not good science, but active fault lines could produce larger earthquakes at some point.
The question of earthquake prediction and how to know if the Big One is coming remains a mystery. Several forecasting models have been advanced in recent years, including the ability to measure thermal patterns of heat on earth, from space, in order to serve as a predictor. Scientists have discovered holes in this latest theory, and much to everyone’s dismay, no method is reliable for determining when an earthquake will occur. What remains fairly constant is that most large earthquakes occur on fault lines, where the constant pressure from the underlying tectonic plates can cause the ground to suddenly shake, shake, and roll. Scientists can therefore say that larger earthquakes are much more likely along fault lines, especially certain faults known as the San Andreas Fault that runs through much of California.
The question of whether small earthquakes are precursors of large earthquakes is therefore complex. First, you should define small earthquakes; are these the ones that people generally don’t feel, or are these small 2.0-3.0 earthquakes that some people will feel? Even then, if you come up with a definition, you can’t say for sure that small earthquakes always come before big ones.
For example, in California, if you look at the US Geological Survey (USGS) website, you can count hundreds of earthquakes that are not even felt, that occur with great regularity. If these small earthquakes are precursors to large earthquakes, then we would have large earthquakes constantly. On the other hand, small earthquakes suggest some level of fault line activity and increased pressure, and scientists regularly suggest that we all need to prepare for the Big One, as it could happen at any moment. So you can say that small earthquakes can portend big earthquakes because they suggest that eventually, at some point in the future, a big earthquake is likely.
When a large earthquake occurs, the earthquakes from the previous days are called foreshocks. Small earthquakes that occur after a large earthquake are called aftershocks. Even small earthquakes don’t have to be, but scientists can group seismic activity before and after a large earthquake in hopes of better understanding how and why earthquakes occur and under what circumstances they are most likely. However, using the theory that small earthquakes are precursors to large earthquakes is not good science. Only some of them are. It’s more accurate to suggest that the active fault lines that produce these tiny, unfelt shakers could at some point produce larger earthquakes.
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