The conjunction fallacy is a probability error where people choose the option with more elements, even though each element must be true for the conjunction to be true. The simpler option is usually more likely, but people are attracted to more complex options.
A conjunction fallacy is a type of probability fallacy in which people, when given the choice between one event and that event plus another event, are more likely to choose the second option as more likely. In other words, some people who are asked the question “What is more likely to happen: A dog crossing a street or a dog crossing a street and barking at a cat” tend to choose the second option. A conjunction error occurs because people often fail to consider that for a conjunction to be true, every part of it must be true, and because options with a larger quantity are somehow more attractive.
The basic concept behind the conjunction fallacy is how people tend to see two options as similar. In this case, the options are two types of events or situations where one is part of the other. An example of how this error can occur is the following statement: “A man wakes up at six in the morning every day. When he wakes up, is he more likely to drink coffee, or is he to drink coffee and then brush his teeth?” In answering this question, people often have a tendency to choose the more complex answer and make a conjunction error.
The key to recognizing the conjunction fallacy is understanding and knowing how to identify it. Statistically speaking, a conjunction must be considered as two separate parts, like “the man who drinks coffee” and “the man who brushes his teeth”. This means that the second option has two items that both must be true for it to be more likely than the other option, which has only one item that must be true. Since the second option in a conjunction error contains the first, the first option is more likely to be true, since it is not based on a second possible element.
This means that the simpler option is more likely, due to the very nature of the argument. Even people aware of the statistical reality behind the conjunction fallacy can easily fall for it, as it appears to be inherently more attractive. For some reason, people seem to prefer an option that’s more complex or seems more developed and decide that’s a more likely or likely situation. That is why someone must understand and be able to recognize the conjunction error to avoid it, as the mathematical or statistical background may not be sufficient.
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