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The decaying curve of oil production follows a bell curve pattern, with the peak representing maximum production. The curve can be altered by factors such as government regulations, alternative energy sources, and enhanced oil recovery methods. The US Energy Information Administration predicts a steeper decline curve for oil consumption, with world oil consumption likely to reach 118 barrels per day by 2030.
A decaying curve refers to the falling portion of a bell curve, which represents the decreasing production of a nonrenewable natural resource, typically oil, as continued production depletes the supply. First proposed by M. King Hubbert in 1956, the bell curve model closely follows the pattern of oil production, with the upward slope representing new oil discoveries and new infrastructure for oil extraction and distribution. Oil production rate predictions are based on historical discovery rates and production practices. According to Hubbert’s theory of spikes, the curve flattens out and eventually peaks as the rate of oil discovery and additional infrastructure peaks and declines. The rate of decline of the decline curve depends on a number of factors, including changes in demand, government regulations, and engineering methods.
In the United States, oil production peaked in 1970. Since then, US production has steadily declined. In 1999, the American Petroleum Institute estimated that world oil supplies would run out between the years 2062 and 2094. The Institute based those estimates on an average daily consumption rate of 80 million barrels per day worldwide. However, predictions from the US Energy Information Administration indicate a much steeper decline curve for oil, with world oil consumption likely to reach 118 barrels per day by 2030.
Although the Hubbert Peak theory has predicted oil production from oil wells, oil fields, and international oil production fairly consistently, the shapes of the production curve can be altered by several factors. If the government taxes or restricts the use of hydrocarbons, the demand for oil will decrease, flattening the final curve and cushioning the decline curve. The establishment of alternative and effective energy sources would also produce this change. Water or gas injection can re-pressurize the field, allowing for a temporary increase in production rates. Finally, hydraulic fracturing or the introduction of hydrochloric acid into the rock wall of an oil well will increase oil production by increasing the pore size of the rock.
Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), or tertiary recovery, makes it easier to extract more oil from each well than traditional recovery methods. EOR can increase oil yield by 10 to 20 percent. It incorporates the use of chemicals, gases, microbes, or steam to drive oil out of the surrounding base to enhance recovery. Although the process adds to the cost of production, the US Department of Energy has estimated that the use of EOR could lead to the production of an additional 240 billion barrels of oil, which would lessen the steepness of the decline curve. .
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