Attrition models analyze organizational friction, such as employee turnover or student dropouts, using mathematical modeling. Statisticians use data on attrition rates to identify patterns, assess program success, and forecast future changes. Some models contain confidential information and may be used for internal purposes only.
A attrition model is a mathematical analysis of organizational friction, such as the number of students who drop out before completing a degree or the rate of employee turnover in a corporation. These models can be important for understanding friction and taking steps to resolve it. They can be conducted by the organizations themselves and by third parties with an auditing interest, such as government agencies who may be concerned about a college or university’s offerings. Statisticians often oversee the development of a friction model.
This mathematical modeling requires a wide range of data about an organization’s attrition. This data can include base rates, as well as information broken down by age, experience level, reason for leaving or joining an organization, and so on. The more information available, the more a statistician can do with it. A detailed friction model can provide useful and meaningful data.
The statistician can prepare a series of attrition failures, observing how membership in an organization rises and falls over time. This can allow people to identify areas of particular interest, such as a spike in decisions to leave a company after hiring a new executive. The attrition model will help analysts understand how people move through an organization and can identify specific patterns that may be important. It can also help companies and organizations assess the success or failure of programs such as recruiting new students or engaging supervisors hands-on.
In addition to modeling existing friction patterns, the friction model can be used in forecasting. Given the available information and known patterns, researchers can show how the number of employees, customers, and students is likely to fluctuate over time. Modeling can also allow an organization to explore what might happen if it makes changes to increase retention. For example, a telephone company could conduct a survey to see how many customers they would remain if a policy change such as a rate reduction were made. This information can be used to estimate the long-term customer retention impacts of this policy to help the business decide how to move forward.
Some friction models are prepared for indoor use only. They may contain confidential or proprietary information that a company generally does not want to disclose to members of the public. Others may be printed in annual reports, disclosures and other documents. In some cases, there may be a legal mandate to discuss wear and tear; colleges, for example, need to provide information about their graduation rate for the benefit of prospective students.
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