Futurists analyze historical data to predict and analyze the future, with many large organizations employing them to gain an advantage over competitors. They must be careful not to make wild assumptions and engage in scenario building to formulate concrete scenarios. Scientists are often part-time futurists, using their research to contribute to a larger effort.
Futurists are those who try to predict and analyze the future. There are professional futurists, who make a living out of futurism, as well as amateur futurists, who look to the future in their area of particular interest. Arguments for modern futurism emerged in the mid-1940s, pioneered by the German Ossip K. Flechtheim, who said that even if we can determine the most basic statistical trends and trace them back two decades, we will be generating valuable information. for society to use. Many large organizations now employ futurists and scenario planners to help them gain an advantage over their competitors.
The futurist’s job starts with analyzing historical data, extracting regularities, and projecting those trends a bit, just to see what numbers come up. For example, the human population has doubled approximately every 34 years over the last hundred years, and although the doubling rate has slightly decreased in recent times, it makes sense to assume that the general trend will continue even if the doubling time is extended to, say, every 40 years. General and uncontroversial statistical trends like these are the canvas of the futurist who paints more speculative projections. Futurists must be careful about making any wild assumptions in the basics, lest they suffer the wrath of those who pay them to make serious predictions.
After putting together a general idea of the next 5, 10 or 20 years, a futurist often engages in “scenario building” – formulating concrete scenarios and ranking them based on their likelihood. For example, “probable”, “possible”, and “wildcard” scenarios. This helps the company or organization in question to choose their actions wisely in the present in order to bring about the future of their choice. For example, it might be said that it is likely that we will be doing most of our shopping online in 20 years, but that most of our work is unlikely to be done in virtual worlds.
Certain scientists tend to get excited about futurism. Because science describes the world around us with more accuracy and empirical support than most laypersons’ guesses, scientists are often part-time futurists. Because many scientists work on small pieces of small problems, they like to sketch the big picture and describe to the public how their little corner of research is a small part of a much larger useful effort. For example, a researcher working on a new nanotechnology film might suggest that his work could one day be used to filter water for children in developing countries. This is a prime example of a futurist, even if the person doesn’t call themselves one. Futurists go by many names – but in the end, anyone who waits more than five years deserves to be called as such.
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