Post hoc fallacy is a logical error where one event is assumed to have caused another just because it happened after it. It has led to many superstitions and false beliefs throughout history. This misconception is not limited to primitive cultures and is still prevalent in modern times, leading to beliefs in luck charms and anecdotal evidence in politics.
A post hoc fallacy is a logical fallacy, a statement that appears correct on the surface but doesn’t stand up to closer scrutiny. “Post hoc” is short for post hoc, ergo proper, a Latin phrase meaning “after this, therefore because of this”. It assumes that since one event occurs after another, the first event must have caused the second event. This is the foundation of many superstitions and spurious beliefs from prehistory to the present. In reality, there may be no cause and effect relationship between the two events.
Logic is the science that distinguishes factual information from unfounded assumptions and beliefs. Logical fallacies are common misconceptions that are still considered true by large groups of people. These generally fall into a few widely recognized categories. The study of logic is thousands of years old; as a result, many logical errors are named in Latin, which was once the language of scientific and legal discourse.
Post hoc error is a very common type of misunderstanding. Most people discover the law of cause and effect at a very young age. Since a cause always precedes its effect, this can lead to the erroneous notion that a given event caused a subsequent event, when the relationship between the two events may be different or non-existent at all. A classic illustration is known as rooster syndrome; roosters commonly crow at dawn, before sunrise. A primitive society or a child might therefore believe that cockcrow causes the sun to rise.
Many rituals, traditions and beliefs have been created as a result of the post hoc fallacy. Primitive societies, witnessing a solar eclipse, often performed elaborate rituals to “bring back the sun.” When the sun returned, they concluded that their rituals were successful and decided to practice them at every eclipse. Faith healers and other magical remedies have often benefited from this fallacy when their work appeared to produce beneficial results in sick or injured individuals. In reality, the recovery was likely due to the subject’s immune system and natural ability to heal.
Post hoc fallacy, however, is not limited to primitive cultures. Many modern superstitions stem from this kind of misconception. Amateur and professional athletes may decide that a piece of clothing or clothing is a good luck charm if they wear it during a particularly successful match. In political discourse, pundits and elected officials often indulge in post hoc errors when citing anecdotal evidence to promote or discredit a particular policy. Anything that doesn’t support this argument, including actual scientific evidence, is either accidentally or deliberately ignored.
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