Election projections use polls to predict results, using statistical methods to adjust for demographics and voting history. Exit polls and partial results can improve projections. Election observers use projections to monitor free and fair elections and compare with actual results.
An election projection uses poll statistics to predict election results. There are several statistical methods to do this. Projections can be based on pre-campaign polls, polls during campaigns, and exit polls on polling day. Subsequent projections can be made using partial results. An election projection can also form an important part of election observation.
Pre-campaign and campaign polls attempt to test the mood of a nation or locality where an election is about to be held. Polls and polls ask voters for their thoughts on candidates, how likely they are to vote, and who they would vote for. If the results were taken literally from a single survey, they would not reflect reality. This is why this poll data is adjusted to account for demographics and voting history.
As the campaign builds, more and more polls will be conducted in the voting areas. Using statistical techniques, poll results can be used to project who will win the election. These take into account the likelihood of a party’s voters turning up to vote, the cross-appeal of some candidates, and intra-party hostility against the party’s candidate.
Voting intentions are often judged based on the voting system in place. For example, U.S. presidential election polls must account for the electoral college system in an election projection. This means that if candidate A is expected to get 51 percent of the vote in every state, she will get more than 51 percent of the electoral vote. In fact, she would get about 535 of the effective votes compared to three for candidate B. That’s because all states give 100 percent of their electoral votes to the winner with only Maine and Nebraska using proportional voting.
Exit polls are surveys of people who voted. The results of the exit poll are not announced until the polls close. While there is no guarantee that voters will tell pollsters the truth, it is usually a good indication of the actual result. When mixed with partial results from the first constituencies or states to be declared, a better picture of the national mood can be created. For example, in 2010, Labor in England retained its traditional seats, but every result showed a huge swing against the party; this led to an election projection of a change of government, as Labor would lose more fringe seats.
Election observers in countries around the world are generally looking for free and fair elections. They try to eliminate corruption and electoral fraud. Election projection is important because it allows monitors to poll voters and make projections on two fronts: the total number of voters and who they voted for. Sophisticated election projections can then be compared with the actual declared result.
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