Inference in science refers to conclusions or hypotheses drawn from limited data. Scientists make such conclusions all the time, but they don’t prove cause. Inference can take many forms, such as suggesting correlations or interpreting data. The more data a researcher can gather, the more likely a conclusion is accurate. Stem cell research is largely based on inference, with little concrete data to support it.
In science, an inference refers to reasonable conclusions or possible hypotheses drawn from a small sampling of data. The adjective “small” can be interpreted as much less than all the possible data that can be collected on a given topic. Scientists make such conclusions all the time, which may prove correlation, but they don’t prove cause. In fact, most “known” scientific facts are hypotheses since it would be impossible to completely collect all the material on a topic.
Inference can take many forms. A hypothesis or theory about how something might or might not work is a starting point. It can be done when a person observes something in the known world and sets out to test whether the theory about it holds up.
A scientist can also draw conclusions based on the results of such tests. These can become theories, suggest correlations or become interpretations of findings. Suggesting correlations or interpreting data are some of the more common inferences. For example, for over a century, people have had drawings of what dinosaurs might have looked like. These designs are based on the best ideas the researchers had, based on the available evidence. Examining the skeletal structure, making decisions about what types of animals dinosaurs were, comparing dinosaur finds to modern animals, and using some guesswork has created an interpretation in the form of drawings, models, and even movies.
As paleontology has advanced, these ideas about dinosaurs have changed dramatically. Ideas that some dinosaurs may have had feathers, be described as warm-blooded, and have increased intelligence have been advanced as scientists’ knowledge and dinosaur specimens collected increase. By sampling DNA, scientists are even able to determine some relationships between newer or still living animals and these ancient creatures.
Looking at the history of how dinosaurs were depicted, it’s easy to see that an inference can be as valuable as the data it is made from. More data has led to fewer hypotheses, and some dinosaurs, such as the brontosaurus, have been proven to never have existed. The more data a researcher can gather on a topic, the more likely a conclusion is accurate. All inferences are guesses anyway, even when those guesses are well reasoned.
For the average person, it’s helpful to understand that when science infers, it’s not always accurate. For example, there have been significant amounts of theory and efforts to fund stem cell research in recent years. Those who are prompted to support this research are basing their argument that it is necessary largely on inference. There is little concrete data that stem cells will actually do some of the things people propose they do. There are a number of encouraging examples of work leading many scientists to the conclusion that stem cell research could lead to a wide range of treatments for diseases and conditions.
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