Moore’s Law predicts that the number of transistors on a microchip will double every two years, leading to exponential growth in computer hardware. This trend has remained stable since the 1970s, but may reach its limits between 2017 and 2025. The law also affects the prices of electronics and leads to constant product releases. Tech companies feel pressure to follow the law, but chip development will eventually be limited.
Moore’s Law is a concept first proposed in 1965 by Gorden E. Moore, one of the founders of Intel, a major American technology company. Simply put, he says the number of transistors on a microchip will increase exponentially, typically doubling every two years. Since microchips are the powerhouses of the electronics industry, this exponential progression obviously has a huge impact on computer hardware.
Moore’s observation was based on his experience in the integrated circuit manufacturing industry. He noted that Intel has been able to double the number of transistors on a single chip about every 18 to 24 months, and that this trend has remained stable across multiple chip generations. In the 1970s, people referred to this phenomenon as “Moore’s Law,” thanks to Carver Mead, a professor at the California Institute of Technology, who coined the phrase.
A look at a graph that tracks microchip production suggests that this law is a reality, even as people argue about its limits; several studies indicate that this exponential growth rate could stop between 2017 and 2025, as producers reach the limits of possibilities. Moore’s Law is not just about the base number of transistors on a chip, it also has to do with the prices of microchips and, consequently, the prices of electronics in general.
Using this law, people can predict the prices of a wide variety of consumer electronics products, including computers, digital cameras, and phones. More transistors increase the power and capacity of electronics, which means companies are constantly releasing new and improved versions of their products. This can be frustrating for consumers who buy a top-of-the-line product, only to find the price drops rapidly within a year or so. Awareness of this trend leads some consumers to look for mid-range electronics, rather than aiming for the best.
Tech companies sometimes feel intense pressure from Moore’s Law. While Moore’s original proposal was simply an observation of market trends, some companies use it as a literal law, seeking to double the capacity of their computer components each year. Major chip makers, including Intel, tend to release new chips on a two-year schedule, reflecting scientific development, consumer demand, and pressure on how people understand the law. As Gordon Moore pointed out in 2005, chip development has to stop somewhere, and eventually, tech companies will be atomically limited, unable to shrink.
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