Futures studies involves studying the past and present to predict future events or situations, and can be used to design a way to achieve preferable future conditions. It is based on the principle that history is cyclical and uses cause and effect. It has numerous applications, including predicting fashion and design fads and determining which companies are likely to succeed. However, predicting long-term events and trends has become more difficult due to global changes in technology, communication, and marketing.
Futures studies, also known as futurology or forecasting, involves studying the past and present to make educated guesses about the future. Data collected from these studies can be used to predict possible or likely future events or situations. It can also be used to design a way to achieve preferable future conditions.
Many people believe that history is cyclical or that certain circumstances will be seen over and over again. This is the principle on which future studies are based. Searching historical and current times for patterns can allow future meteorologists a way to predict the future based on current conditions and how those conditions have affected results in the past. Many future studies use cause and effect. For example, if a government is being unfair or unpopular with the citizens of that country, the current government is changed or overthrown. This has been seen hundreds of times throughout history and will likely be a pattern seen hundreds of times more.
There are numerous applications for future studies. One possible application is as a way to predict future fashion and design fads. The fashion market typically needs to work 18 months in advance, giving designers time to design, advertise and manufacture future styles. The stock market is another area where futurology is used. Determining which companies are likely to succeed and which are heading for bankruptcy requires the ability to use futures studies correctly.
New companies and organizations can use future studies to improve the likelihood of their success. Studying how other similar companies started and how their businesses are run can give a new business a wealth of insight into different strategies. There are likely to be many differences between a company that is making a lot of money and a company that has not lasted more than a year. By studying these differences, a new company can determine its own success, following in the footsteps of the most successful companies.
Some say future studies cannot predict long-term events and trends the way they could a decade ago. Global changes in technology, communication and marketing resulted in scenarios that nobody could have predicted. Change is happening at a faster pace than ever before in history. It will be difficult to predict future trends because of these changes. New futures studies professionals will need to consider these new trends carefully before creating their predictions.
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