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A Malthusian catastrophe is a situation where overexploitation of agricultural resources leads to a society returning to subsistence living. It was predicted by Thomas Malthus in 1798, and some believe every society has a tipping point. Overpopulation is linked to disease, hunger, and social unrest. Global population growth is hypo-exponential, but concentrated in developing countries. Developed nations use more resources and a Malthusian catastrophe could occur in developing countries, where famine, disease, and violence are already present.
A Malthusian catastrophe is a situation in which a society returns to a subsistence level of existence as a result of overexploitation of its available agricultural resources. There are a number of alternative names for this situation; some people call it a Malthusian crisis, trap, or disaster, for example. Some theorists also believe that every society has a Malthusian limit, a population tipping point that will trigger such a crisis. The concept of a Malthusian control over population levels has been widely debated, especially in the 20th century, with the rapidly growing human population raising concerns for some people.
The idea of a Malthusian catastrophe was advanced by Thomas Malthus in An Essay on the Principle of Population in 1798. Malthus pointed out that human populations tend to grow exponentially, while agricultural resource capacities tend to grow arithmetically. Using these schemes, Malthus predicted that at some point the needs of a human population would outstrip agricultural capabilities. This, in turn, would trigger radical social changes, including population decline and, according to Malthus, a state of misery.
The history of several cultures seems to suggest that a Malthusian catastrophe could be a very real threat; companies like Easter Island used up all their available resources and collapsed, for example. Overpopulation is also clearly linked to disease epidemics, hunger and social unrest. Some people believe, however, that Malthus has oversimplified the matter and that there may be ways to deal with a growing population without causing misery. Others suggest that the growing disparity between First and Third World nations indicates that a Malthusian catastrophe may already be underway.
Concerns about global population growth have led to numerous studies of world population, including estimates of global population from periods prior to record keeping. These estimates show an exponential growth rate, but in the 20th century this growth rate became hypo-exponential, meaning it increased even more radically. However, in the developed world, populations are actually declining; this means that growth is concentrated in developing countries, which could lead to serious problems in the future.
Developed nations also use a disproportionate amount of resources, putting even more pressure on developing countries. If a Malthusian catastrophe were to emerge, people who support this population theory predict that it will happen in developing countries. Some parts of the Third World are already struggling with famine, disease and violence, which means this tipping point could be near.
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