The Simulation Argument suggests that our world may be a computer simulation run by a more advanced race. The argument assumes it’s possible for advanced races to run ancestor simulations, and if the number of simulated worlds exceeds real worlds, it’s rational to assume we are in a simulated world. As computing power and data storage continue to increase exponentially, our species could control an enormous amount of computing power and storage space, which could be used to run simulations of the past. If this is a common developmental milestone among intelligent species, our world could be one of them.
The Simulation Argument, formulated by Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom, presents the case that there may be a high probability that our world is a computer simulation run by a more advanced “posthuman” race. More precisely, the Argument from Simulation argues that “at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) it is highly probable that the human species will become extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage; (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of its evolutionary history (or variations thereof); (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.” (Quoted from Bostrom’s article introducing the topic of simulation, “Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?”)
The simulation argument begins with the assumption that it is theoretically possible for a highly advanced race to organize information-processing modules (neurons, circuits, whatever) into configurations that represent self-contained worlds inhabited by conscious beings. In this way, it would be possible for these advanced races to run ancestor simulations—simulations of their own ancestors or other primitive races simple enough to simulate in their computers. If the total number of simulated worlds in this universe exceeds the number of real worlds, then it is rational to assume that the probability that we are in a simulated world is related to that ratio, no matter how “real” our world seems to our human intuition.
Around the turn of the 21st century, all of the world’s computers could collectively process about a trillion operations per second (10^18 operations/sec) and hold several petabytes (10^15 bytes) of data. These numbers are exploding exponentially, with doubling times of about a year for processing power and several months for data.
The human brain, also being a machine, has a quantifiable amount of computing power and data storage. Cognitive scientists estimate the processing power of the human brain at between 100 trillion and 100,000 trillion operations per second, although some estimates are significantly lower. Tom Landauer, a scientist specializing in human learning, has estimated that human memory is between 200 and 300 megabytes large.
If the growth rates of computing power and data storage continue to increase exponentially, as they probably have before for alien races going through their own computing revolutions, our species will be in control of an absolutely enormous amount of computing power and storage space. Given the right programs, this space could be used to run simulations of the past at such high resolution that the inhabitants of the simulation become conscious beings with their own experiences, plans, hopes, desires and belief systems. If this is a common developmental milestone among intelligent species in the universe, then there could be a multitude of ancestor simulations, and our world could be one of them. Plausible alternative hypotheses include the possibility that all intelligent races go extinct before they reach the level of sophistication required to run ancestor simulations, or that there is some universal reason why advanced races don’t run ancestor simulations.
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