Hubbert predicted US oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970, leading to the theory of “peak oil”. Experts debate whether global oil production will also peak, with pessimists warning of economic collapse, while optimists believe alternative energy sources will mitigate the impact. Coal could be used as a liquid fuel, with at least two hundred years of reserves available.
In 1956, geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that US oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. This turned out to be correct. Hubbert’s theory is called “Hubbert’s peak theory” or simply “peak oil”. According to the theory, oil production increases until it reaches a peak, at which point about half of the original resource is left. Since Hubbert’s initial theory, experts have debated whether world oil production will also peak. Some of the same debates have also centered around coal, with analysts questioning how long we can power our energy-hungry civilization on finite fossil fuels.
According to pessimists, we may have already reached the peak of global oil production, or will soon. This would eventually lead to irreversible increases in the price of oil, causing increases in the price of virtually everything else, eventually leading to economic collapse, global depression and other dire consequences, all the way to the dissolution of modern industrial civilization. They argue that we could run out of oil almost entirely in a few decades or less.
According to optimists, peak oil production will be reached between 2020 and 2030. The impact will be mitigated by investments in alternative energy sources such as solar panels, solar thermal, wind, tidal, geothermal and nuclear fission. Solar space stations, synthetic microbes that produce biofuels, and nuclear fusion are also frequently cited possibilities. These optimists argue that peak oil fears are unfounded and that more innovative extraction techniques will help close the gap. They believe that oil won’t run out in less than 50 years and possibly more than a century.
Most experts agree that there is far more coal available than oil, and if oil runs out, we could switch to coal. Making coal even more useful are the chemical processes that can convert it into a liquid form. In this way, coal could be used as a liquid fuel similar to today’s oil. Most experts agree that we have at least two hundred years of coal left, possibly more.
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